Well, the mogul is dwindling, or it seems so at the moment. A recent study published by Research2Guide cements this statement. Apple’s App Store market share has dropped to 59%.
The report says
In two years Apple’s market share dropped by 24 percent points to 57% (2.HY/2010). With new app stores coming up and Android becoming very strong competition Apple’s app platform lost some of its dominant market position.
But the first quarter of 2011 showed a kind of stabilization, as Apple’s market share stopped its down turn and even increased by 2 percent points to 59% (Q1/2011). This is due to download support from iPad users who are “heavy app users”. The iPad support will remain as long as the other app store operators fail to come up with a competitive app store offering which addresses the tablet app users, and non-IOS based tablet shipment numbers are low.
If Apple manages to slow down its market share loss over the next two years it will be difficult for other players to overtake Apple for a long time. Two factors are narrowing down the time for competitors to catch up.
- Mass-market effect: Smartphone penetration will reach 50% in most of the developed countries by 2014/2015. The more smartphones become a mass-market phenomena the less app downloads a new user will add.
- Lock-in effect of downloaded apps: The more apps are downloaded and the more money is spent on apps, the less likely is the switch to another platform and, in the case of Apple, to put aside iPhone, iPod Touch or iPad.
What is more interesting is that the report predicts that Apple will continue to have a fan following even after it’s share is reduced to a mere 40% by 2015.